Thursday, June 4, 2009

okay day

sold my NUE short, way too early. AH yesterday, STLD got smushed...and i had a gut feeling that steel and NUE would also crack worse than the prices i was seeing at the open, but after the IBM fiasco yesterday, where i was too slow to sell, i was out of the trade in 2 minutes in from open. i probably wouldn't have held till the afternoon when we saw max. smushage, but i should have been able to game another 400/500 off it easily. 5 more minutes actually.

GS...i was slow to get into that play. it cracked from 143, which would have been the correct entry point, but i did see weakness at 142 and thought that it would break inline with the rest of the market smushage. my first mistake was that i entered a speculative play, 145 puts, GS is at 142 and they are selling at 7. that's a $4 risk premium. second GS wasn't breaking, at least not in the clean break sort of way that i like. there was resistence. thirdly, the rest of the market was already close to the bottom, i could see, and this thing is still only down a duck. screw that, it was too risky. it was spiking around like mad, so on the next run up, i doubled down and on the next spike down, i dumped it for +.15 and +.2...not big profits, but i was glad to be out of that trade. within that set of spikes i could have gamed .20 cents more and later in the afternoon it did break 142, but around close it zoomed to 144 in 15 minutes.

why the long writeup, because this was well traded. i saw the impending break - good. watched closely for 30 minutes and saw it was too risky. exited the trade promptly. if you don't like it, get the fuck out of it.

the double down also needs to be explained. my initial position size of 10 was good, it's GS, don't go nutty. but, i screwed up by buying 145 was the type of option buy, which requires large moves on the underlying to really pay up. for $1 move in that, GS would have to move $2. i realized that within minutes and switched strategy to double down, to capitalize on the smallest of moves. i basically decided i was gonna be out of the trade within minutes. all of this only because of the ass lickin' PDT (pattern day trader rule). google my site to read my venting on it.

although i tracked the YM, i was too chickenshit to play. get this, around 3:42, i'm thinking this day is pretty much over and after looking at the charts, i enter an order to buy POT calls, at a price 20 cents lower than current spread. i'm thinking it'll either hit it or i'll fine tune the price or whatever. i had other stocks lined up as potential buys. so i'm looking at the YM and xx18 seems like a good short entry point, i enter click transmit, check on some stuff, go back and bam it's at, it's zooming up at the end of the day again. a move of 60 points in minutes. luckily, my POT order went through just seconds ago and so my YM order didn't have enough money to get triggered. phew! thank you GOD>

btw, i figured out the reason for the end of the day spike. the big guys (and me) were waiting for mad smushage into the close. we had smushage, but we didn't have mad smushage. and so that meant, things were still safe and the swing trade was go long. the same time i went long POT, the big boys went long everything else and that pumped everything up big time, plus that kind of runup triggers all kinds of stops and short covering, which fuels the runup even more. that's why it's such a spike.

i feel very good here. i'm in touch with the trading flows. i'm synced. fingers crossed.

NUE10SLD9.20JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK09:30:5720090603NASDAQOM7.00
GS10BOT6.99JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI13:09:2820090603NASDAQOM4.50
GS10BOT6.95JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI13:30:2820090603ISE7.00
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS10SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5820090603ISE7.00
POT10BOT12.00JUN09 100.0 CALL Option PYPFT15:44:4520090603PSE7.00

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