Friday, January 23, 2009

exciting yet confusing day

i was really looking forward to trading today.  i am on a under 25K capital restriction, where i can only do 3 day trades in 5 trading days.  that's because i lost a lot of money :)  but i am building it back.  one step at a time.  it's frustrating in that before i went in and out of positions really, really fast.  you get good enough at it, you can make $500 easy on these wide volatility moves and all those add up.  now, i have to double think my positions and i try to maximize my return, which causes problems such as today (more about that later).  also, now i try to do more over night's, which don't count as day trades, but are riskier overall.  that's why i haven't traded for the last 3 trading sessions.

in any case, i was so excited, that i didn't go to sleep till 6:30 am.  i know, i'm crazy.  the alarm rang at 8:30 am and i was way too tired and i decided to trade later in the afternoon.  i only had one day trade for the day anyway, so it didn't really matter.  i woke in the afternoon.  the morning had been way oversold, so a nice rally was developing, yet i didn't really believe in it and decided to short either IBM or AAPL.  i calculated buy levels and waited and waited and in all that waiting i got kinda confused and finally bought IBM but not at the best levels.  it happens.  you second guess yourself to death over time.  sometimes, my best trades happen when i just decide on a buy/sell level quickly.  second guessing is just killer.  get the big picture and just make a play.  quit it if it goes against you.  easier said than done.

the buy is not too bad.  2:30 pm market is tanking....lalala...i turn on the music, light a cigarette and am prancing around.  now based on analysis i had set a sell level earlier of a +1 profit, which i thought was reasonable.  IBM was close to it about 30 cents off.  so i'm prancing about and all of a sudden it goes down that 30 and i have my sell level.  but, what do i do, i get greedy and wait some more.  it goes back up 30 and after that it never comes down to that level again for the rest of the afternoon.  so basically, i got greedy, ignored my sell level, which was superbly calculated and so lost out on an easy 1 K.  fuck.  merde.  i cursed myself for the rest of the hour.  

i could have sold for a + .5 profit...but IBM is showing weakness, so i will hold over the weekend.  which i hate doing, due to time decay.  oh well, at least my day trade was not wasted and i can now use it next week.  and IBM may well tank.  CAT is reporting Monday and that should suck.  but, i am fearful of a rally.  it could come anytime.  creep up on ya.

i try not to use too many "but's" in my sentences, but that's trading...nothing is concrete, everything has a fucking "butt".

it's friday.  i guess i'll go and get drunk, but it would have been way more fun with that little profit under my belt.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

eventful friday

RECAP OF FRIDAY the 16th's trading:

i woke up early and went to murky coffee house.  C and BAC had reported, but AH they were up.  i thought the results were bad for both, but who knows.  I was short GS.  GS was up by about 2 dollars from where i bought it and many times till 10 a.m. i almost sold it.  it just wouldn't break and was just swinging back and forth and my heart was in my mouth and i thought that any moment now it will break up massively.  but then around 11:00 am it broke nicely and i was able to sell.  i left over $3 on the table also, the break was quite extreme.  but, i was glad to be out of it.

i then lazed around and watched the tape, looking for opportunities to go long.  i went long SPY and took a double position...RISKY ! but i felt good and had quite a bit of profit for the week, so i thought what the hell.  good call.

i sold the SPY's when i thought the tape was going weak and went short RIMM.  bad decision, because RIMM had massive strength behind it based on the AAPL steve job's health story.  i didn't realize that completely.  market never really broke, but on other stocks i would have made a small profit...on RIMM i took a -1 loss.  could have been less, but i held till the close.  sold at 3:59:41.....phew, huh!!!  

those options expired that day and i don't know what would have happened if i hadn't sold.  probably my trading company wouldn't have given me the best prices on it's execution.

good week.  drank too much coffee.   should have gone for lunch....will work on that.  it's good to relax the mind.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

dismal week is turning out good

the dismal part is in lamentation for my IBM loss.  it's done. i'm over it.

as you know, my GS puts were looking very good last night.  the only question was at what level to sell them.  i'm thinking 70% gain, dream of 100%, but nah that won't happen.  in the morning i dilly-dally in my bed.  i'm pretty sure the market's are gonna go down and i want to give them some time.  the bottom's usually around 10-10:30 and probably for this day they will go down for some time.  the sun is shining on my face.  i'm half dozing, kinda worried.  my phone rings.  it's a job recruiter.  it's 10 a.m.  bless him.  he woke me up at the perfect time.

i run to my computer.  quick look at the indices.  carnage.  i log in feverishly.  i take one look at the quote and hit the sell button.  100% return.  no if's, and's or but's.  i don't even think.  i don't care where it goes from here.  that's an instant sell.  thank you GOD>

so i sit there watching and it's going lower.  i'm thinking things have to bounce.  i want to buy the calls right away, but i do due diligence.  check the news, other stock quotes.  i come back and it's gone up a little.  pull back a little bit for me sweety.  it's so close to my buy price.  i don't get my price.  fuck it.  i'm not going to risk it.  i am going back to bed, with my 100% gain and no worries hanging over my head.

i wake up in the afternoon and things are going back up.  strong.  the whole day would have been good for daytrading.  it went up, then down and then a strong up. it was 1:30 pm and i quickly decided that the rest of the day needed to be spent at Murky coffee house.  2 hours of bliss coming up.  that is if watching the tape turns you on.

it's frigging freezing out there.  i get coffee.  two cute college girls sitting across from me.  they're organizing their future.  how cute.

it's too late for me to participate in the rally.  and i don't like it anyway.  i've seen days like this before.  i'm ready to short.  i calculate various price levels for GS.  76 is heavy resistence.  76.5 is optimal.  high from last day.  highly unlikely it rallies past that point.  i get in at 75.8.

that's the hard part.  now sit back and watch the tape.  it only came close to 75.8 once, rest of the time, it just trended lower.  i calculated sell levels.  watched like a hawk.  swooped.  nice.  +2 points.

it trended lower for a little bit more.  then it jammed higher and i shorted it again at close.  C's reporting tomorrow and it's not going to be good.  their management sucks, board sucks, assets suck.  i'm a little uneasy, but what the hell.  no guts, no glory.

AH, the news is mixed.  BAC moved up it's earnings date to tomorrow morning.  and it seems they will be getting more money.  TARP II passed.  it's a mixed bag.

it's 11:55 pm and i am going to get a late night beer.  need to clear my head.  relax a little.  sleep.  tomorrow is going to be another fun day.

sold IBM bought GS

Overview of Wednesday the 14th's trading

as you know my IBM puts were sucking.  i am a day trader, if i am holding a security for over 2 days it's a real bad sign.  IBM had crossed the 2 weeks mark.  at this point i just couldn't tell what it's future was.  monday and tuesday of options expiration week, were whipsaw.  as told in the last post IBM showed some unusual strength in the face of overall market decline, so i was really worried.  wednesday, the news in the financial sector was really bad and i thought things would go bad all day.  i am watching the tape in the morning and IBM is down a dollar, but it's dithering around and i said "screw this" and sold it at 6.1.  i bought at 7.5.  i went back to bed disgusted.

in the afternoon i check the quotes and not 5 minutes after i sold, IBM went down in a straight line.  in less than 10 minutes it was at 82.3.   i would have sold at 7 or 7.5 or if i was really on point for a small profit.  i was so mad.  don't get me wrong, i made the right decision, the trade had gone sour.  in such cases you always collapse at the first chance you get.  but, it was terrible bad luck.  if it had gone down with the market on Monday, i would have held, but that spooked me.  trust me, there are market manipulators out there and you don't want to fight them.

i watched the tape all afternoon to fine tune my skills.  did lots of research and thinking.  i was thinking about going long, particularly AAPL, but the fact that JPM was about to report was weighing on me.  C and BAC were getting decimated too.  at the last moment i decided i didn't want to go long and went short GS.  actually i had bids out for both of them and GS just got hit first.

thank GOD, i didn't get AAPL.  steve jobs is dying or about to die and apparantly he's the entire fucking company.  how can you invest in a stock, when one man is the sole reason to buy it.  anyway, AAPL tanked after hours (AH).  and guess what BAC tanked AH as well.  they went to the gov. for $10 billion more.  lalala .... all the financials are getting killed.

conservative calculations show i might return an easy 70% on my GS short.  thank you GOD>

Monday, January 12, 2009

horrible IBM won't die

well folks the tuesday before christmas on the 30th we (i really) bought IBM puts....well christmas was day off, thurs. was uneventful and friday, well let's just say friday has been the last chance since then for me to sell my puts at a profit.  so i am watching the tape intently, and IBM was at the point of cracking, i had like .3 on it and it just wouldn't crack and i thought also i should get rid of this....i don't like the way it's just holding on and at 3:30 there was a huge rally and ibm spiked up over 1.5 in minutes....well actually it dwadled at break even point for me for a couple of minutes....zoom up one dollar and by close up another .5 ......

i had a feeling something bad was gonna happen and it did and i was caught with my pants down.  it was a really tough call though, the volume has been very light since late Nov., even as i write now in mid. Jan....volatility been really low was a very tough call to sell and i didn't make it.

the aftermath is went up like a rocket for the next week, i stopped looking at the quote, finally late last week i started tracking it again....friday had a chance to sell at 5.5, but i still think this is a dog and that the market would go down today, i.e. Monday.

well, i was right about the market going down today, i saw the tape in the morning and it was screaming sell sell sell of everything.  i could have closed my eyes, picked a stock, gone short and made money.  on some, very good money.  guess, the one stock that i track which went up and up....fking IBM....i've checked all the sites that i know of and there is no news.  if ever you thought of people or unknown entities manipulating stocks, this was a poster child for that day.   there was no reason, zero, nada, zip for IBM to go so strongly +1.5 and stay up for most of the day.  none.  i don't give a shit that their earnings are a week away....they are going to suck and this crapper is gonna break 80 for sure, but for now some unknown, unseen forces are pumping this higher.

i am still short, but tomorrow is this point i am willing to take a 2 point loss (ouch yes) and watch from the sidelines.  there's other chickens to pluck.