Thursday, June 4, 2009

insane GS rally

stocks ran rampant today, especially GS and POT.  i sold POT, right at the open today, sensing weakness, but it was a fakeout.  it opened near 112 and finished the day near 115.  i totally did not see that runup coming.  what was even more surprising was the runup on GS.  it was up around 146 or +4 from yesterday and i thought beautiful short and bought puts.  it then kept on going up, closing over +3 from where i bought for a total move of +7 to 149.  monster run.  i totally did not see that.  all i can say is, if you are a day trader, and you went long GS after a $4 open runup, you have gotta be insane.  

price movements make no sense anymore.  it's like somebody is manipulating the market ;)

anyway i had coffee at greenberry's.  too much coffee actually.  had to stand in line for a god awful long time to get my burger.  just for that they get no publicity.  went back home and closed my YM short for a loss, bringing my total YM profits for the day down to $24 :)  hey atleast it wasn't a loss.  i was playing safe with only 2 contracts throughout.  it was more for fun.

doubled down on GS near the close.  after a $7 run, it should give back some tomorrow and that way i can get out for near breakeven.  but, it's a risky play and i will definitely be up bright and early.

POT10SLD13.20JUN09 100.0 CALL Option PYPFT09:31:3020090604CBOE7.00
GS1BOT10.70JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK09:42:2320090604BOX0.75
GS1BOT10.70JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK09:42:2320090604BOX0.15
GS1BOT10.70JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK09:42:2320090604BOX0.45
GS7BOT10.70JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK09:42:2320090604PHLX4.90
YM1SLD8685.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0910:35:5020090604ECBOT2.13
YM1SLD8685.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0910:35:5020090604ECBOT2.13
YM2BOT8670.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0910:41:0420090604ECBOT4.26
YM2SLD8705.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0910:57:0420090604ECBOT4.26
YM2BOT8700.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:25:2320090604ECBOT4.26
YM2SLD8705.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0913:10:0820090604ECBOT4.26
YM1BOT8720.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:00:1520090604ECBOT2.13
YM1BOT8720.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:00:1620090604ECBOT2.13
GS1BOT8.45JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK15:03:1120090604ISE1.00
GS1BOT8.45JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK15:03:1120090604ISE0.40
GS8BOT8.45JUN09 155.0 PUT Option GPYRK15:04:0320090604ISE5.60

okay day

sold my NUE short, way too early. AH yesterday, STLD got smushed...and i had a gut feeling that steel and NUE would also crack worse than the prices i was seeing at the open, but after the IBM fiasco yesterday, where i was too slow to sell, i was out of the trade in 2 minutes in from open. i probably wouldn't have held till the afternoon when we saw max. smushage, but i should have been able to game another 400/500 off it easily. 5 more minutes actually.

GS...i was slow to get into that play. it cracked from 143, which would have been the correct entry point, but i did see weakness at 142 and thought that it would break inline with the rest of the market smushage. my first mistake was that i entered a speculative play, 145 puts, GS is at 142 and they are selling at 7. that's a $4 risk premium. second GS wasn't breaking, at least not in the clean break sort of way that i like. there was resistence. thirdly, the rest of the market was already close to the bottom, i could see, and this thing is still only down a duck. screw that, it was too risky. it was spiking around like mad, so on the next run up, i doubled down and on the next spike down, i dumped it for +.15 and +.2...not big profits, but i was glad to be out of that trade. within that set of spikes i could have gamed .20 cents more and later in the afternoon it did break 142, but around close it zoomed to 144 in 15 minutes.

why the long writeup, because this was well traded. i saw the impending break - good. watched closely for 30 minutes and saw it was too risky. exited the trade promptly. if you don't like it, get the fuck out of it.

the double down also needs to be explained. my initial position size of 10 was good, it's GS, don't go nutty. but, i screwed up by buying 145 was the type of option buy, which requires large moves on the underlying to really pay up. for $1 move in that, GS would have to move $2. i realized that within minutes and switched strategy to double down, to capitalize on the smallest of moves. i basically decided i was gonna be out of the trade within minutes. all of this only because of the ass lickin' PDT (pattern day trader rule). google my site to read my venting on it.

although i tracked the YM, i was too chickenshit to play. get this, around 3:42, i'm thinking this day is pretty much over and after looking at the charts, i enter an order to buy POT calls, at a price 20 cents lower than current spread. i'm thinking it'll either hit it or i'll fine tune the price or whatever. i had other stocks lined up as potential buys. so i'm looking at the YM and xx18 seems like a good short entry point, i enter click transmit, check on some stuff, go back and bam it's at, it's zooming up at the end of the day again. a move of 60 points in minutes. luckily, my POT order went through just seconds ago and so my YM order didn't have enough money to get triggered. phew! thank you GOD>

btw, i figured out the reason for the end of the day spike. the big guys (and me) were waiting for mad smushage into the close. we had smushage, but we didn't have mad smushage. and so that meant, things were still safe and the swing trade was go long. the same time i went long POT, the big boys went long everything else and that pumped everything up big time, plus that kind of runup triggers all kinds of stops and short covering, which fuels the runup even more. that's why it's such a spike.

i feel very good here. i'm in touch with the trading flows. i'm synced. fingers crossed.

NUE10SLD9.20JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK09:30:5720090603NASDAQOM7.00
GS10BOT6.99JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI13:09:2820090603NASDAQOM4.50
GS10BOT6.95JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI13:30:2820090603ISE7.00
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS2SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5320090603ISE1.40
GS10SLD7.15JUN09 145.0 PUT Option GS RI14:05:5820090603ISE7.00
POT10BOT12.00JUN09 100.0 CALL Option PYPFT15:44:4520090603PSE7.00

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

good day

too exhausted to blog....enjoy the trades :)

NUE10SLD8.70JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK09:37:0920090602NASDAQOM7.00
IBM20SLD3.20JUN09 110.0 PUT Option IBMRB09:39:2520090602NASDAQOM14.00
YM4SLD8735.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:01:2120090602ECBOT8.52
YM1BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:09:0320090602ECBOT2.13
YM2BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:09:0320090602ECBOT4.26
YM1BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:09:0420090602ECBOT2.13
YM4SLD8735.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:12:0420090602ECBOT8.52
YM3BOT8725.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:15:5120090602ECBOT6.39
YM1BOT8725.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:15:5120090602ECBOT2.13
YM3BOT8710.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:37:3820090602ECBOT6.39
YM1BOT8710.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:37:3820090602ECBOT2.13
YM1SLD8705.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:40:1920090602ECBOT2.13
YM3SLD8705.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0911:40:2220090602ECBOT6.39
YM4SLD8705.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0912:46:1020090602ECBOT8.52
YM4BOT8704.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0912:50:4020090602ECBOT8.52
YM4SLD8734.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0913:51:4520090602ECBOT8.52
YM1BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:00:0620090602ECBOT2.13
YM1BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:00:0620090602ECBOT2.13
YM2BOT8730.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:00:0620090602ECBOT4.26
YM4SLD8745.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:21:4520090602ECBOT8.52
YM4BOT8738.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:25:5020090602ECBOT8.52
YM1SLD8755.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:46:0620090602ECBOT2.13
YM3SLD8755.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:46:0620090602ECBOT6.39
YM4BOT8745.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:50:1320090602ECBOT8.52
NUE2BOT7.70JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK15:46:1220090602PSE1.40
NUE8BOT7.70JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK15:46:1220090602PSE5.60

Monday, June 1, 2009

slow day

due to a bad habit i spent most of the morning chasing dreams in my bed. justifiably, i was a little eager to get back to trading, especially as today was my smush YM, in the ass, day. okay, i only put "in the ass" because...well...YM treated me that way on friday. sob, yes i was treated oh so badly, so vilely....okay my first trade i short the YM and within minutes i see it's a bad trade, but my brain's still doozy and i watch it run up and then sit there marvelling at my stupidity. well i watched tv in between. animal planet rocks. anyway i was able to collapse for a minor loss and after that, just from watching the tape, i had got my rhythm back.

the easy money was in the morning runup. well, easy...if your watching the damn chart in the afternoon. hahaha..ha. day trading humor.

well, i reversed and went long. made up my loss and some extra cash. GS was very weak. i think this rally may have a dip tomorrow morning. went short NUE, was gonna double down, but then realized this was a strong commodity instead shorted IBM. large speculative position in IBM, but fairly confident it's runup is bogus. weakness at close confirmed, but tomorrow's another day.

had a mango. nectar of gods.

YM4SLD8700.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0913:20:3420090601ECBOT8.52
YM4BOT8710.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:53:4520090601ECBOT8.52
YM4BOT8700.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:12:4720090601ECBOT8.52
YM4SLD8720.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:29:4020090601ECBOT8.52
NUE10BOT8.20JUN09 55.0 PUT Option NUERK15:34:5720090601PSE7.00
IBM20BOT3.10JUN09 110.0 PUT Option IBMRB15:42:0120090601PSE14.00

Friday, May 29, 2009

god damn

was up 500 ducks on my excellent bottom of the day close of my overnight GS puts. then tinkered around all day playing the YM, as i was thinking right until the close, masterfully. up 1K, that's right, for the day on the YM, self congratulating and patting my back. entered for one last scalp, market spiked hard and then spiked like i have very rarely seen. over 100 points in the YM in over 5 minutes. it was so fast, before i thought of a level it was broached never to be reached again. i was short at 8400 and briefly i could have closed at 8425, but then 8440, 8460, 8480 and finally i just hit sell at 8490. it peaked at 8530 and settled at 8415. had i held on, i would have lost even more money. total loss on this one trade alone 1.8K, demolishing all hard earned profits for the day and putting me in the hole by 200 ducks.

i had a similar experience with a YM runup at close once before. but, as i recall that one wasn't as bad. i need more experience with the YM. things to consider, change number of contracts. not all trades need maximum leverage. don't trade the last 20 minutes as they seem to be the most volatile. start adding stops to YM trades, something i don't do with my option trades.

btw, the best reason i can think of for the runup, was end of the month book balancing. closing bad positions or looking in gains for the month by big funds. something to remember in the future.

on the plus side, i scalped the YM for over a K on a very dead day. but, at the same time i managed to lose it all in one trade. i still can't conclusively say that trading the YM is a good idea. today's experience was productive, but it hurt like hell.

i could use a drink right about now.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

same damn pattern

the start of the day was horrible. i got up early and checked the futures and they were nicely up. MON was up to around 81 dollars in premarket and i'm thinking ka-ching. So the market opens and the spread is 11 on a 11.5. i'm thinking small spike and i might be able to hit 11.7...i enter that in and click transmit and my fucking computer just freezes. it's making all this electrical noise. 2 mins go by. i am fucking freaking out. i'm clicking on all the windows nothing's happening. then it's back. MON has gone down to 80.3...70 cents in 1.5 minutes from the open exactly. i quickly enter 10.5 and get faded instantly. that minute and a half delay cost me $500 dollars. i would have changed my 11.7 to 11.5 and then to 11 and i would have got it. MON spiked again to about 10.7/10.8 and then for the rest of the day it went down hard. i wanted to throw my computer out of the window. i think i definitely need another just for trading laptop.

i was in a bad mood about that for a while.

i thought the index was gonna die, so sold some YM, made some nice coin on it, but GS looked even juicier. i got some puts and it crashed, sold them too early, but the severity of the crash was unanticipated by me. but, get this, the entire move down was very rapidly covered again. very fast spike down and a pretty quick recovery. very treacherous market.

i had a bad hangover, so i went to the coffee shop. but, i mostly fucked around. i didn't feel like trading. and then i made the same damn mistake i have been making each and every day. i re-shorted GS around 12pm and then it spiked up a dollar and traded in a 1-1.5+ range for the rest of the day. no smushage at the end either. every fucking day i short too early. sigh.

went and got some pho. it was delicious. the guy got my number wrong and gave me pho with chunks of fat or cartilage in it. it was fucking delicious. usually i only get no. 11 or 12, like clockwork, but i think i have a new no. now. years of eating pho at PHO 75 and now i eat fat, cartilage, stomach, u name it. the pho place is right next to the coffee shop.

got home and remembered i had more funds in my account now, because i have been making some coin and found i could trade 1 YM. so i short it stupidly and watch it go 20 points up, but it's only a loss of 100 dollars, so i resolutely plan to hold till close. when out of nowhere, there is a crazy spike down and i sell right at the bottom of it, making 60 ducks. very nice scalp. i wouldn't have held like that if i had my normal 3 contracts.

overall good day trading. just finished watching "mifunes sidste sang", a danish dogma movie and am gonna watch "la habitacion de fermat" spanish next. it's supposed to be very good. it's nice when your day ends by 4pm and ur already home and you can watch movies or go outside and cool yourself under the pouring rain.

all i need now is a woman, a dog and a place in the countryside.

MON10SLD10.50JUN09 70.0 CALL Option MONFN09:37:0020090528NASDAQOM7.00
YM3SLD8345.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0909:53:0120090528ECBOT6.39
YM3BOT8325.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0910:00:1620090528ECBOT6.39
GS10BOT10.70JUN09 150.0 PUT Option GPYRJ10:05:1620090528ISE7.00
GS10SLD11.80JUN09 150.0 PUT Option GPYRJ10:10:1120090528NASDAQOM4.5
GS10BOT9.90JUN09 150.0 PUT Option GPYRJ12:19:5720090528ISE7.00
YM1SLD8378.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:32:3920090528ECBOT2.13
YM1BOT8365.0JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:54:3620090528ECBOT2.13

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

good day

i woke up with a badly upset stomach. i could barely sit at the computer, so even though the market was fluctuating i set a sell level of 12 (breakeven) for my POT and went back to sleep. MON had given bad guidance and i was hoping that sell off would at the very least tamper POT's gains. i woke up to find that my POT had already been sold at breakeven. it was at the same level again and sinking lower. what really pissed me off, was the price differential. i bought my puts yesterday, when POT was at 116 for 12. today they offered the same price 12 only when POT reached 115.3. that's some serious price gouging. i don't like trading POT ;|

i watched the indices flutter around and traded the YM. was up $400+, when i made a bad buy. i survived that one (last one below), but the lesson learned is now becoming fairly clear. YM is a very dangerous instrument to trade. very volatile and it's not that easy to see where the overall market is going, compared to a single stock. i have to be very cautious trading this fucker.

gonna rest up now, since still not fully recovered from my stomach flu. or is it the pig flu ;)

POT10SLD12JUN09 125.0 PUT Option PYPRE11:24:5720090527NASDAQOM7
YM3BOT8339JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:28:0020090527ECBOT6.39
YM3SLD8345JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:29:4720090527ECBOT6.39
YM3SLD8360JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:40:3820090527ECBOT6.39
YM3BOT8350JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0914:58:3520090527ECBOT6.39
YM3SLD8366JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:07:2220090527ECBOT6.39
YM3BOT8350JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:10:5420090527ECBOT6.39
YM3BOT8311JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:24:1920090527ECBOT6.39
YM3SLD8310JUN09 Futures YM JUN 0915:46:5820090527ECBOT6.39
MON10BOT10.3JUN09 70.0 CALL Option MONFN15:59:5320090527PSE7